Analysis of Kentucky Derby 136

So what about that Super Saver and Mr. Borel, huh? I attended a Derby Party for yesterday's big race, and as those two crossed the finish line, I threw up my hands and yelled, "Super Saver just won the Derby!! Wooo-hooo!!" It was great!

After much celebration, I was finally able to sit down and examine the race. Below is a recap:

Super Saver (4) had a clean break from the starting gate, and Calvin made an immediate bee-line move for the rail in less than a furlong. Conveyance (12) took the early lead with Sidney's Candy (20) and Line of David (5) following as the field passed the grandstands for the first time. At the first turn, Super Saver was in an approximate fifth or sixth place. Lookin at Lucky (1) was in the back half of the pack.

On the second turn, Conveyance and Sidney's Candy had jumped to a lead of 5-6 lengths in front of the field. They maintained this lead into the third turn. At this point, Super Saver, still on the rail, advanced to the fourth place position, following Noble's Promise (3). Heading into the final turn, Noble's Promise made his move and took the lead, as Sidney's Candy began dropping back quickly. Meanwhile, Super Saver moved out to his right, and positioned himself between Conveyance (on his left and in second place) and Noble's Promise (a length ahead on the right). In the fourth turn, Super Saver passed Conveyance and was on the rail again. He took the lead, passing Noble's Promise, by the mile and an eighth mark.

Super Saver continued his lead and crossed the finish line about a length and a half before the place horse, Ice Box (2). Ice Box made crazy fast ground in the last stretch, and passed Paddy O'Prado (10) with less than a furlong to go. If the race would have been even a furlong longer, Ice Box would have won it. Lookin at Lucky finished sixth, and Sidney's Candy dropped back to 17th. The race was finished in two minutes and 4.45 seconds.

Calvin Borel stayed true to his reputation and stayed on the rail for the entire race, except when he first broke from the gate, and later when he passed Conveyance. In this sense, the winner was almost predictable--Mr. Borel did exactly what he always does--ride that rail.

When interviewed in the winner's circle, Mr. Borel said that he was going to do it this year--he was going to get that Triple Crown. I don't doubt him for a minute! Now, on to the Preakness in two weeks!!

Photo courtesy of the Associated Press, 2010.

Super Saver Wins the 136th Kentucky Derby!

Good evening, and what an evening it has been! They did it! Super Saver and Calvin Borel won the Derby!

Great pick, wouldn't you say?!

A full analysis of the race will come tomorrow...I'm still much too excited about the great win to begin an analysis tonight!

Until then... Happy Derby to all!!

Introduction, Kentucky Oaks and Derby Picks

Hello there!!

Tonight starts Blog #1 of what I hope to be an exciting and fun adventure! So what is the purpose of this blog? Well, I'm to be doing just as the title suggests--talkin' race horses. Let me dive into a little background of myself, so I may explain...

I adore horses. I mean, absolutely ADORE every little thing about horses! Ever since I was a young girl, I've collected horse figurines, toys, books, pictures, etc. Although never owning a horse of my own, I have always had a strong passion for horses, and I've been fortunate enough to be well on my way to having a life's career with horses.

Now, for this blog, I turn to the "Sport of Kings." As a resident of Kentucky, Derby Day is an exhilarating time. Great food (Derby pie!), fashion (love the hats!), and celebrities, not to mention the tearful singing of "My Old Kentucky Home," make for a very special day. For me, the Derby is all about the horses, and analyzing potential contenders for the Run for the Roses can be a lot of fun. Here's where this blog comes into play--I hope to use it as an outlet for me to discuss up and coming Derby contenders. I have developed my own method of picking Derby horses, and I've been successful in recent years. So, I've been chomping at the bit to begin, so let me start with the ladies' race today...

136th Kentucky Oaks

Today was the wonderful Run for the Lillies with the ladies of the horse racing world. My pick for the Oaks was Tidal Pool, a bay filly by Yankee Gentleman and Sea Rhythm (by Deputy Minister). Her trainer is the legendary D. Wayne Lukas. Her jockey is the amazing Calvin Borel. Mr. Borel is the main reason why I chose this filly.

So, how did she do today?

She broke well from the starting gate, and jumped to an early lead on the first turn. Immediately, I was worried. I'm not all too wild about horses that jump to an early lead since they usually fall back...hard. Regardless, Tidal Pool hung in there until the final turn when Evening Jewel began her move. Blind Luck, the favorite, made one heck of a run from dead last and advanced to beat Evening Jewel by a nose. Thrilling race! Tidal Pool came in third by about two horse lengths. Not too shabby in a field of 14. Here are my thoughts on what a good pick is: if they come in the money (win, place, or show), then the horse was a good pick. Winning is like a bonus.


136th Kentucky Derby

So the big race is less than 24 hours away! It's hard to choose just one horse, so here are my picks:

Super Saver. This colt is by Maria's Mon and Supercharger (by A.P. Indy). Todd Pletcher is the trainer, and the awesome Calvin Borel is the jockey. In pictures, Super Saver looks to have a long body, ideal for taking those long strides. He always has a deep and wide chest, which is an indication of large lung capacity, and perhaps greater stamina for that 1 1/4 mile. The weather forecast for tomorrow is said to be one of the wettest on record for a Derby. Super Saver won his first race on September 11th at Belmont Park on a sloppy track--all more the reason to choose this horse. As Mr. Borel has demonstrated in the past three Derbies, and today's Oaks, he comes into the money. I believe he and Super Saver can do well tomorrow.

Lookin at Lucky. This Bob Baffert horse by Smart Strike and Private Feeling (by Belong to Me) has had my eye since early January. He's a handsome colt with a great depth of chest. One thing that worries me about the current favorite is the fact that he hasn't raced on a sloppy track. If the rains come tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how he handles it.

Sidney's Candy. I like this Candy Ride colt because of his run in the Santa Anita Derby, beating Lookin at Lucky. There was just something about him that has caught me, and I could see this horse doing well.

So, those are my picks! I really hope to see a big win out of Super Saver and Calvin Borel tomorrow! Happy Derby!!